UK HR Market Update July to September 2026
Our fiscal second quarter, read against the first, April to June
UK HR hiring shows early signs of recovery
UK HR hiring showed early signs of recovery across July to September 2026, our second fiscal quarter. The Indeed Hiring Lab index of HR postings closed the quarter a little higher after a 10.9% spring fall, and permanent placements grew for the first time in nearly four years. The growth is marginal and the wider market still soft, but the direction has changed.
Data to 23 October 2026Indeed Hiring Lab, KPMG and REC, and adverts on LinkedIn, Reed and other UK job boards
1UK HR postings found their floor on 22 July and by 23 October stood 4.5% above it, after an early October high.
2Permanent placements returned to slight growth in August and September, though KPMG and REC report vacancies overall fell again.
3Director level roles took a larger share of our UK HR work, up by more than a third on April to June: a change in mix, not a count.
The index
HR postings fell in the spring, found a floor on 22 July and edged up
From April to June the Indeed Hiring Lab index of UK HR postings fell from 72.5% to 64.6%. The 2026 peak of 76.4% on 25 May was a short spike: HR postings held near 71% through early May and were back at 71.5% by 1 June. From there they fell about 12% to a floor of 62.6% on 22 July, most of it in mid June, then turned: the monthly average rose in August and again in September, and the quarter closed at its high of 66.0%.
The wider market had already fallen by 13% between 1 March and 1 June while HR postings held up, so much of the HR fall in June and July brought it back into line with the rest of the market. For June, KPMG and REC reported demand for staff falling at its quickest rate since January, led by permanent vacancies, and the Bank of England's Agents and Indeed Hiring Lab describe employers delaying hiring amid the Iran conflict, UK political uncertainty and higher costs. None of them explains the timing of the HR fall specifically.
The index reached 66.8% on 5 October and stood at 65.4% on 23 October, 4.5% above the floor, while seasonally adjusted postings across all UK sectors were 0.6% above their 22 July level. The quarter still averaged below the spring and the index remained 2.9% below a year earlier: a change of direction, not recovered ground.
Indeed Hiring Lab, to 23 October 2026
UK HR postings index2026 to date. The index sets February 2020 at 100%, so 65% means HR adverts at 65% of the level then. Shaded bands are our fiscal quarters: Q4 January to March, Q1 April to June, Q2 July to September, Q3 October to December.
Since the 22 Jul low
+4.5%
From 62.6% to 65.4%
Latest reading
65.4%
23 October 2026
2026 peak
76.4%
25 May 2026
Where the demand is
Permanent hiring returned to modest growth, and director level roles took a larger share of our work
In the KPMG and REC Report on Jobs, permanent placements fell through April to June, stabilised in July and grew in August for the first time since September 2022. In September placements rose at a pace the report itself calls marginal, though the strongest in four years, and private sector demand for permanent staff rose for the first time in over two years. The wider picture is still soft: vacancies overall fell again and candidate availability kept rising, as it has for three and a half years.
Our own mix moved up at the top, with director level roles taking a larger share of the UK HR roles registered with us, and specialist families gained share, led by talent acquisition. HR Generalist remains our largest family. These are changes in mix, not growth.
Momentum
New roles led the turn, while employers' plans stay cautious
Indeed Hiring Lab's index of new HR postings rose by more than a fifth across July to September, against 12.5% for all UK new postings, and on 23 October sat 10.6% above a year earlier, while new postings across all UK sectors were 5.9% below. By September, KPMG and REC's panel listed HR Business Partners among permanent skills in short supply, after excess supply in June, and Payroll Specialists all quarter, while Generalist and senior HR skills still appeared in excess supply.
Employers' plans are positive but cautious. ManpowerGroup's net hiring outlook climbed from +27%, published in March, to +37% in June, and its September release points to slower, still positive, hiring plans for October to December, while the CIPD's summer net employment balance was +9, still near a record low.
How our role mix changed
| Family or level | April to June | July to September | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talent Acquisition | 7.6% | 10.8% | +3.2 pts |
| Talent Management | 3.5% | 6.5% | +3.0 pts |
| HR Systems and Analytics | 2.1% | 5.0% | +2.9 pts |
| Reward | 15.3% | 15.8% | +0.5 pts |
| Director and above | 4.2% | 5.8% | +1.6 pts |
Shares of the UK HR roles registered with our UK team, not counts: a rising share means an easing one elsewhere. Talent Management, HR Systems and Analytics and director level roles are small groups, so a few roles move their share by several points.
Live UK HR adverts by role family
- Payroll995
Talent Acquisition769
- “Talent Acquisition”669
- “Resourcing”87
- “Recruitment Manager”60
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Generalist755
- “HR Advisor”399
- “HR Manager”247
- “Human Resources Manager”119
- “HR Generalist”48
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Business Partner489
- “HR Business Partner”336
- “People Partner”169
- “HRBP”19
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Systems321
- “Workday”244
- “HR Systems”76
- “HRIS”37
- “People Analytics”14
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
Reward318
- “Reward”194
- “Compensation”135
- “Benefits Manager”32
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
- Employee Relations235
Learning & Development199
- “Learning and Development”133
- “L&D”49
- “Learning Manager”38
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Director181
- “Head of People”100
- “Head of HR”42
- “People Director”19
- “Chief People Officer”16
- “HR Director”15
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
Talent Management63
- “Talent Manager”37
- “Talent Management”30
- The adverts whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
- Leadership Development45
Our weekly sample of LinkedIn job adverts, collected through a third party data service we subscribe to, read 13 October 2026: the number of adverts still live on that date, and first found in the month before it, whose title matches each role family, with the bars drawn against the largest family. HR Director covers HR Director, People Director, Chief People Officer and Head of HR or People titles. A count is a measure of advertising, not of hiring.
The wider job market
| Measure | April to June | Change | July to September | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR postings, first to last day | 72.53% to 64.62% | −10.9% | 64.34% to 65.95% | +2.5% |
| New HR postings, first to last day | 72.74% to 65.78% | −9.6% | 65.55% to 80.24% | +22.4% |
| Permanent placements index | 49.2 to 49.1 | −0.1 pts | 49.1 to 50.9 | +1.8 pts |
| Private sector permanent vacancies | 47.6 to 45.4 | −2.2 pts | 45.4 to 52.9 | +7.5 pts |
| Public sector permanent vacancies | 38.5 to 41.7 | +3.2 pts | 41.7 to 44.5 | +2.8 pts |
| Employers' net hiring outlook | net +13% to +27% | +14 pts | net +27% to +37% | +10 pts |
Indeed rows: the seasonally adjusted indices of UK HR postings and of new HR postings (roles live seven days or fewer), where 1 February 2020 is 100%, read on the first and last day of each quarter from the data Indeed published on 6 October 2026; each change is the percentage change in the index from the first to the last day of its quarter, not the difference in points. KPMG and REC rows: the reading for the last month of the quarter before and of the quarter itself, with changes in index points. Each index measures the monthly change in the number of people placed in permanent jobs, or in demand for permanent staff, reported by recruitment consultancies, on a 50.0 baseline: a score above 50 signals growth on the month before and a score below 50 a decline. Placements fell in April and May (47.5 and 44.1) before stabilising in July. The private and public sector vacancy series are not seasonally adjusted, and public sector demand remains below 50. ManpowerGroup: each quarter's net hiring outlook as first published, against the quarter before, in percentage points; its September release restates July to September as +36%.
What the market is paying
Pay data is steady, and starting pay picked up over the summer
Pay is ahead of prices, but only just. The Bank of England's Agents put 2026 settlements at 3.6%, with 2027 expected similar or slightly lower, and ONS regular pay grew 3.5% over May to July, a real gain of 0.6% after CPIH inflation. KPMG and REC's starting salary index rose to 54.1 in August before easing in September, still below its long run average.
Pay published in direct employer adverts runs well below what the roles we recruit for carry, so the table below shows the typical salary on the UK permanent roles we recruited for over the last 12 months. For an HR Director that is £120,000, in Talent Management £89,000 and in Reward £80,000, rising to £115,000 for senior Reward roles. These are base salaries, before bonus and long term incentives, so we would still benchmark each role by location, seniority and scope before setting a 2027 range.
The typical salary on the UK permanent roles we recruited for in the 12 months to October 2026, with direct employer adverts from our RadarHR sweep for context
Advertised pay by skill set
| Skill set | Salary |
|---|---|
| HR Director | £120,000 |
| £89,000 | |
| By level | |
| Senior and above | £95,000 |
| £80,000 | |
| By level | |
| Senior and above | £115,000 |
| Mid level | £81,000 |
| £77,500 | |
| By level | |
| Senior and above | £87,000 |
| Mid level | £72,500 |
| Employee Relations | £75,000 |
| Learning and Development | £72,000 |
| HR Systems | £67,500 |
| £63,500 | |
| By level | |
| Senior and above | £80,000 |
| Mid level | £62,500 |
| £60,000 | |
| By level | |
| Senior and above | £85,000 |
| Mid level | £55,000 |
| £55,000 | |
| By level | |
| Senior and above | £70,000 |
| Mid level | £50,000 |
The typical salary on the UK permanent roles we recruited for between 22 October 2025 and 21 October 2026, from our own records, as base salary before bonus and long term incentives: the median of the middle of each role's salary range. Interim roles, roles our US team handled, overseas roles and day rates are left out, and a skill set or level shows only where ten or more roles stand behind it. Pay published in direct employer adverts runs lower: in our RadarHR sweep of LinkedIn, Reed and other UK job boards between 20 July and 14 October 2026, the typical HR Director advert offered £66,250. Open a skill set to see Senior and above, and Mid level, where there are enough roles.
What we are hearing
From clients and candidates this quarter
We are seeing more of the senior HR roles we are briefed on sit at director level, as organisations settle the leadership next year's plans depend on.
We are seeing talent acquisition, HR systems and reward specialists briefed as investments in capability, wanted in place before headcount growth arrives.
We are seeing Employment Rights Act preparation move from policy review to resourcing, with employers asking for business partner, employee relations and payroll capacity for next year.
Richard Colgan
Founder & Group CEO
Oakleaf Partnership
Outlook
Outlook for the quarter ahead
- 1Our judgement is that the turn in HR demand will hold through this quarter, October to December, and the data indicates it will build gradually. Employers' net hiring outlook for this period is +23%, below the summer but more than double a year earlier; Bank of England Decision Maker Panel firms expect employment over the next year to be broadly flat, up 0.2%; and the CIPD still describes hiring as on hold. We expect senior and specialist roles to lead.
- 2We would set 2027 HR pay ranges this quarter, consistent with current levels. On the UK roles we recruited for, like for like salary ranges moved little on a year earlier, and HR systems and HR technology saw the largest rise.
- 3We would protect the hiring pipeline, starting with talent acquisition. In the CIPD's 2026 resourcing survey, 52% of employers said competition for well qualified talent had increased. Firms with a structured talent acquisition process and market leading onboarding shorten the time from approval to offer, which improves an organisation's competitiveness in a market like this.
- 4We would be mindful of the Employment Rights Act changes landing through 2027 when planning next year's resourcing.
Our next review, covering October to December, is due at the end of January 2027. If it would help to talk through what this means in practice, we would welcome the conversation.
Contact Richard Colgan
