US HR Market Update July to September 2026
Our fiscal second quarter, read against the first, April to June
US HR hiring grew through the summer, ahead of the wider market
US HR hiring grew through July to September 2026, our second fiscal quarter, and faster than the market around it. The Indeed Hiring Lab index of HR postings closed the quarter higher after a 2.0% rise across April to June, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics describes a steady labor market and employers' hiring plans, strong in the summer, have eased. HR demand is growing; the wider market is steady rather than strong.
Data to 23 October 2026Indeed Hiring Lab, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and postings on LinkedIn, employer career sites and other job boardsSee the UK market
1US HR postings rose across July to September and by October 23 stood at their highest since April 2024, 14.8% above their January low.
2The wider labor market is little changed: payrolls grew modestly, unemployment edged up, and employers are hiring cautiously while employees stay put.
3Our US mix moved toward mid management specialists and toward permanent hires.
The index
HR postings rose through the spring and the summer, and by October 23 stood at their highest since April 2024
From April to June the Indeed Hiring Lab index of US HR postings rose from 91.3% to 93.1%. July to September built on it: the monthly average rose each month, and the quarter opened at its low of 93.0% on July 1 and closed at its high of 97.6% on September 30.
The rise carried on into October. The index reached 99.5% on October 21, its highest since April 2024, and stood at 99.4% on October 23, 17.4% above a year earlier, while seasonally adjusted postings across all US sectors were 2.7% above their July 1 level and 3.1% above a year earlier. HR demand is outpacing the wider market, and the index now stands just 0.6% below its February 2020 baseline.
Indeed Hiring Lab, to 23 October 2026
US HR postings index2026 to date. The index sets February 2020 at 100%, so 65% means HR adverts at 65% of the level then. Shaded bands are our fiscal quarters: Q4 January to March, Q1 April to June, Q2 July to September, Q3 October to December.
Since the 9 Jan low
+14.8%
From 86.6% to 99.4%
Latest reading
99.4%
23 October 2026
2026 peak
99.5%
21 October 2026
Where the demand is
The wider labor market is steady, and our mix moved toward specialists and permanent hires
The Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a steady picture. Payrolls grew by about 51,000 a month across July to September after revisions took 60,000 off July and August, unemployment edged up to 4.2%, and August's JOLTS report put the hires rate at 3.3% and the quits rate at 1.9%: employers hiring slowly and employees staying put. The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point in September.
Our own US mix moved toward an increase in talent acquisition and learning and development briefs over July to September (finally), while total rewards and HRIS, which led the spring, stayed pretty steady. By level, mid management specialist roles took a much larger share and analyst and coordinator roles a smaller one. A larger share of vacancies came as permanent hires.
Momentum
New roles rose again, live postings eased, and employers' plans cooled
Indeed Hiring Lab's index of new HR postings rose across July to September, ahead of all US new postings, and on October 23 sat 3.3% above a year earlier, while new postings across all US sectors were 5.3% below. Live US HR postings on LinkedIn fell 4.5% over the six weeks to October 13, led by HR Business Partner, Employee Relations, Talent Acquisition and Learning and Development, while Talent Management, HR Director and HRIS led the risers. The smaller families swing by double digits on a few hundred postings.
Employers' plans are positive but softer. ManpowerGroup's net hiring outlook for US employers rose from +38% in March to +45% in June, and its September release is lower for October to December. The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index rose in July and August and fell back in September, ending the quarter 1.0% above a year earlier, and SHRM's CHRO outlook for April to June found expectations for recruiting and reward budgets softening.
How our role mix changed
| Level or job type | April to June | July to September | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid management specialist | 16.0% | 34.4% | +18.4 pts |
| Manager | 28.0% | 28.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Analyst and coordinator | 36.0% | 25.0% | −11.0 pts |
| Director and above | 12.0% | 9.4% | −2.6 pts |
| Permanent roles | 64.9% | 71.8% | +6.9 pts |
| Contract roles | 29.8% | 28.2% | −1.6 pts |
Shares of the US roles registered with us and classified by level or job type, not counts: a rising share means an easing one elsewhere. The US group is small, so a few roles move a share by several points, and role families are described in the text rather than tabled for the same reason.
Live US HR postings by role family
- Payroll6,357
Total Rewards3,981
- “Compensation”4,036
- “Benefits Manager”230
- “Reward”37
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
Talent Acquisition3,879
- “Talent Acquisition”3,963
- “Recruitment Manager”127
- “Resourcing”32
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
Learning & Development3,658
- “L&D”3,394
- “Learning and Development”357
- “Learning Manager”78
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Generalist3,471
- “Human Resources Manager”1,545
- “HR Generalist”1,468
- “HR Manager”683
- “HR Advisor”42
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HRIS3,212
- “Workday”2,527
- “HRIS”780
- “People Analytics”118
- “HR Systems”100
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Business Partner1,547
- “HR Business Partner”1,306
- “HRBP”205
- “People Partner”153
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
- Employee Relations678
- Leadership Development564
Talent Management454
- “Talent Management”342
- “Talent Manager”149
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
HR Director246
- “HR Director”128
- “Head of People”61
- “Chief People Officer”42
- “Head of HR”22
- “People Director”6
- The postings whose title contains each phrase. One title can contain two, so the parts can add up to more than the family.
Our weekly sample of LinkedIn job postings, collected through a third party data service we subscribe to, read 13 October 2026: the number of postings still live on that date, and first found in the month before it, whose title matches each role family, with the bars drawn against the largest family. HR Director covers HR Director, People Director, Chief People Officer and Head of HR or People titles. A count is a measure of advertising, not of hiring.
The wider job market
| Measure | April to June | July to September | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| HR postings, open to close | 91.27% to 93.13% | 93.02% to 97.62% | +4.9% |
| New HR postings, open to close | 94.72% to 95.41% | 96.54% to 100.21% | +3.8% |
| Job openings | 7.18m | 7.08m | −0.10m |
| Quits rate | 2.0% | 1.9% | −0.1 pts |
| Employers' net hiring outlook | net +38% | net +45% | +7 pts |
Indeed rows: July to September, on the readings shown. JOLTS rows: August (preliminary) against June, seasonally adjusted; openings in millions. ManpowerGroup figures are as published in March and June 2026 and cover all US hiring, not HR.
What the market is paying
Pay growth has eased to just behind prices
Pay is behind prices, but only just. The Employment Cost Index put wages and salaries up 3.2% in the year to June, and average hourly earnings grew 3.0% in the year to September, against consumer prices up 3.4% in the year to August, and real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% over the year to August. The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker eased to 3.9% in September, and Indeed's tracker of advertised pay held at 2.5% in the year to August.
What we are hearing
From clients and candidates this quarter
We are seeing a larger share of the roles across middle and senior management and in specialist roles.
We are seeing an increase in talent acquisition and learning and development briefs finally come through. Total rewards and HR Tech still lead, framed as investment in capability before headcount growth.
We are seeing senior appointments hold broadly steady as a share of our work, with employers filling the roles that keep next year's plans on track rather than adding at the top.
Simon Hunt
Managing Director
Oakleaf Partnership Inc
Outlook
Outlook for the quarter ahead
- 1US HR demand is continuing to grow marginally this quarter, October to December, and the data indicates it will build gradually. Employers' net hiring outlook for this period is +36%, nine points below the summer but eight above a weak year earlier base of +28%, and Challenger reports announced job cuts in July to September 36% lower than a year earlier, yet the seasonal surge in hiring plans has not arrived, consumer views of the job market softened and rates rose. We expect replacement and specialist hiring to lead, with expansion hiring waiting on the new year.
- 2Wage growth has eased and real pay is slightly negative, SHRM's CHRO outlook shows wage expectations softening for two quarters running, and NFIB reports a net 20% of smaller, growth firms still planning to raise compensation, so the employers who move first set the reference point.
- 3SHRM reports median requisitions per recruiter up 67% at the largest organizations in 2026. We are mindful of the economic instability we currently face, and these numbers were produced ahead of recent rate rises.
Our next review, covering October to December, is due at the end of January 2027. If it would help to talk this through, our New York team would welcome the conversation.
Contact Simon Hunt
